Latest market

(Editor"s note: This daily digest of the latest news and perspective is a must read for those in business who need to keep abreast of the newest developments in the marketplace, yet do not have time to scour all the media outlets. In less than 10 minutes you will be caught up and in the know on the current events impacting the marketplace.—Jim Wyckoff)

Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Note at Highest Level Since 2008

Today"s Digital Newspaper

The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note reached its highest level in 15 years, which has the potential to increase borrowing costs for various entities. This development is causing concern in financial circles about its possible impact on the stock market, bond market, and housing market, the WSJ reports. The 10-year yield, a significant benchmark for interest rates in the broader economy, closed at 4.258%, as reported by Tradeweb. This represents the highest closing level since June 2008, a period prior to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the subsequent introduction of expansive Federal Reserve policies that led to a prolonged era of historically low bond yields.

Several Biden administration trade policy developments:

— The U.S. Commerce Department is preparing to impose new tariffs on metal used for food cans originating from China, Germany, and Canada, the WSJ reports (link). The investigation revealed that steelmakers from these countries were selling their tinplate products in the U.S. at unfairly low prices, justifying the imposition of import duties. Among the three countries, Chinese products will face the highest tariffs, amounting to 122.52% of their import value. This decision is causing concern among food companies, as it could potentially result in higher prices for certain canned foods.

— A World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute panel ruled China wrongly imposed retaliatory tariffs on various U.S. products, including pork, wine, fruits, and nuts, in response to the Trump-era tariffs on aluminum and steel imports.

— The U.S. is preparing to escalate its complaint that Mexico’s ban on genetically modified (GM) corn violates the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). The office of the U.S. Trade Representative plans to request the formation of a dispute resolution panel under USMCA, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the situation.

Americans are nearing the depletion of their pandemic-related savings. The San Francisco Federal Reserve estimates that the excess savings accumulated during lockdowns and due to government stimulus checks in 2020 and 2021 will be exhausted for most households in the third quarter. Details below.

U.S. home prices have been ticking higher across much of the country in recent months, and that trend looks set to continue. Some analysts are revising their prior projections to be more upbeat. But… the Fed interest rate hike moves have helped push mortgage rates to a 22-year high.

The U.S. commercial real estate sector is facing a more uncertain outlook. This is due to a combination of factors detailed in the Markets section.

Japanese exports experienced a decline of 0.3% in July, marking the first drop in shipments since 2021. While this decline was smaller than anticipated, it raises concerns for Japan's economy.

Spot container shipping rates on trans-Pacific routes are experiencing a notable upward trend, at least for the time being.

The Sulina Channel, a 40-mile stretch of water leading from the Black Sea to Romanian, Ukrainian, and Moldovan ports in the Danube delta, has become a crucial route for Ukrainian grain shipments, protected by NATO's presence.

India is reportedly engaged in discussions with Russia regarding the import of Russian wheat as a strategy to control food inflation, Reuters reports.

A NATO official has retracted his suggestion that Ukraine should cede land to Russia in exchange for NATO membership, after the proposal was deemed "ridiculous" and unacceptable by Ukraine.

Russia's economy, battered by ongoing conflict, has encountered a limitation in its growth potential. Meanwhile, the Washington Post reports that leaked documents detail Russia’s secretive effort to build 6,000 attack drones with help from Iran.

Final planting dates and the impact on prevented planting acres is discussed in a Southern Ag Today article. Details in Policy section.

China has taken strong measures to counter the depreciation of the yuan by providing significant guidance through its daily reference rate for the managed currency.

China snubbed Canada by omitting it from a list of approved travel destinations for tourists because of a significant increase of “rampant and discriminatory anti-Asian acts and words,” Beijing’s embassy told CBC News.

The European Union (EU) initiated an investigation into whether Indonesia is evading EU import duties on biodiesel by routing imports through China and the U.K.

Caramuru Alimentos, a major Brazilian grain crusher, has initiated the sale of soybean-based ethanol at one of its plants in central-western Brazil.

The push to establish electric vehicle supply chains is leading Western mining companies to unexpectedly invest in African countries like Tanzania, Mauritius, and South Africa for metals processing, the Wall Street Journal details.

Tyson Foods, the largest meat company in the U.S., is reportedly considering the sale of its poultry business in China.

Eight candidates met the polling and fundraising thresholds for the first Republican presidential primary debate on Aug. 23. More in Politics & Elections section.

FY 2024 Ag Approps action when Senate returns in September: Hoeven. More in Congress section.

The death toll from the Maui wildfires has reached 111, and the number of missing individuals is estimated to be "probably still over a thousand," according to Hawaii Governor Josh Green. Extensive efforts are underway to search through the debris on the island, with many people searching for their loved ones. Approximately 38% of the burned area had been searched as of Wednesday, as reported by Maui Police Chief John Pelletier. The situation is complicated by the fact that some of the deceased are believed to have perished in the ocean as they attempted to escape the flames by running into the waves. President Joe Biden and first lady Jill Biden are planning to visit Hawaii on Monday to meet with first responders, survivors, and various officials at the federal, state, and local levels.

An appeals court in the U.S. ruled that access to mifepristone, an abortion drug, should be restricted. The ruling, which won't be implemented immediately, would prevent individuals from obtaining the pill through mail orders or remote prescriptions. However, the appeals court did not uphold a previous ruling by a lower court in Texas that completely banned the drug. This issue is expected to return to the Supreme Court, which in the past year overturned certain aspects of Americans' constitutional right to abortion.

MARKET FOCUS

Equities today: Asian and European stock markets were mixed in overnight trading. U.S. Dow opened around 50 points higher. The Hang Seng Index is flirting with a bear market. In Asia, Japan -0.6%. Hong Kong flat. China +0.4%. India -0.6%. In Europe, at midday, London -0.1%. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt -0.1%.

U.S. equities yesterday: The Dow ended down 180.65 points, 0.52%, at 34,765,74. The Nasdaq declined 156.42 points, 1.46%, at 13,474.63. The S&P 500 lost 33.53 points, 0.76%, at 4,404.33.

Walmart beat earnings expectations and raised fiscal-year guidance. The stock rose in premarket trading. Walmart (posted adjusted earnings of $1.84 a share on revenue of $161.6 billion, an increase of 5.7%. Analysts were projecting earnings per share to clock in at $1.71, and revenue of $160.2 billion. Walmart also raised its guidance for fiscal 2024. The company sees adjusted earnings per share ranging between $6.36 and $6.46, including a 5-cent impact from LIFO, an accounting measure. Previous guidance called for earnings to range between $6.10 to $6.20 a share, and analysts’ projections have Walmart reporting earnings of $6.30 for the fiscal year.

Market quotes of note:

The Federal Reserve's minutes from its July meeting revealed several key points:

Bottom line: While the economic outlook has improved, inflation remains a concern, and the Fed is cautious about the impact of their previous rate increases.

Americans are nearing the depletion of their pandemic-related savings. The San Francisco Federal Reserve estimates (link) that the excess savings accumulated during lockdowns and due to government stimulus checks in 2020 and 2021 will be exhausted for most households in the third quarter. This situation raises concerns among economists that the decline in savings could weaken consumers' purchasing capacity, potentially exerting pressure on the overall economy.

Despite soaring borrowing costs, housing demand is strong. House prices have been ticking higher across much of the country in recent months, and that trend looks set to continue. Goldman Sachs revised its home-price forecast upward this week, saying the average closing price will climb 1.8% by year’s end; previously, it said home prices would fall by 2.2%. Goldman predicts home prices will rise even more next year, in part because housing supply is so constrained.

The Fed interest rate hike moves have helped push mortgage rates to a 22-year high. According to Bankrate, the average rate for a new 30-year mortgage hit 7.31% this week, a near doubling since the Fed began raising rates in March 2022.

Bottom line: A typical home buyer’s monthly mortgage payout topped $2,600 last week. “Home buyers have demonstrated behavior that, in our view, reflects unsustainable adaptations to elevated mortgage rates,” the Goldman Sachs strategists Roger Ashworth and Vinay Viswanathan wrote in a research note. “For example, the average debt-to-income ratio on conforming purchase mortgages is over 38%, a significant aberration from post-Global Financial Crisis averages.” Goldman’s housing affordability index this week hit its lowest level since it was created 25 years ago, the same report notes.

While the residential real estate market is faring relatively well, the commercial real estate sector is facing a more uncertain outlook. This is due to a combination of factors including high office vacancies following the pandemic, increasing interest rates, and an anticipated surge in commercial mortgage renegotiations over the next couple of years. The impact of these challenges is particularly pronounced on regional banks, which have a significant exposure to the commercial real estate market.

Japanese exports experienced a decline of 0.3% in July, marking the first drop in shipments since 2021. While this decline was smaller than anticipated, it raises concerns for Japan's economy, which heavily relies on exports. Notably, the second quarter GDP data previously indicated a better-than-expected outcome due to robust exports. The downturn in exports to China played a significant role in this decline, with a 13.4% drop compared to the previous year. This decrease was attributed to reduced shipments of cars, stainless steel, and microchips. Similarly, exports to China had fallen by 10.5% in June. In contrast, exports to the United States increased by 13.5% year-on-year, driven by electric vehicles and car parts. This growth followed an 11.7% rise in June. Concurrently, Japanese imports experienced a notable fall of 13.5% in July, resulting in a trade deficit of 78.7 billion yen ($537.3 million).

Upshot: The data not only raise questions about Japan's export-reliant economy but also have implications for China, given the decline in Japanese exports to the country.

Market perspectives:

• Outside markets: The U.S. dollar index was weaker, with the euro and British pound registering gains against the greenback. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note is higher, trading around 4.28%. Crude oil futures have climbed, with U.S. crude around $80.10 per barrel and Brent around $84.20 per barrel. Gold and silver futures were firmer ahead of economic data, with gold around $1,930 per troy ounce and silver around $22.86 per troy ounce.

• Another bidder for U.S. Steel emerges. ArcelorMittal, the world’s second-largest steel maker, is considering an offer for its smaller rival, Reuters reports, sending U.S. Steel shares higher in premarket trading. ArcelorMittal sold off its U.S. unit in 2020 to Cleveland-Cliffs, the first firm to go public with its bid.

• Spot container shipping rates on trans-Pacific routes are experiencing a notable upward trend, at least for the time being. Recent data indicates that the rate increases that container shipping companies have been pursuing during the summer are finally having an impact on Asia-to-U.S. trade, the WSJ reports. Xeneta estimates that prices have surged by 61% in the past six weeks. Although U.S. importers have generally accommodated these price hikes without major issues, the rates are still considerably lower than the steep highs that disrupted the market in the previous two years. While shipping rates have faced declines this year, experts anticipate that the recent gains made by carriers will likely be short-lived due to an influx of new capacity that is expected to flood the container markets. Currently, both carriers and shippers are feeling a sense of urgency as the peak shipping season progresses, with little indication that consumer demand will significantly boost the flow of goods through ocean supply chains.

RUSSIA/UKRAINE

— Romanian route provides path for Ukrainian grain shipments. The Sulina Channel, a 40-mile stretch of water leading from the Black Sea to Romanian, Ukrainian, and Moldovan ports in the Danube delta, has become a crucial route for Ukrainian grain shipments, protected by NATO's presence. This channel has gained strategic importance in the context of ongoing tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the New York Times reports. In the past, the Danube delta offered a relatively safe alternative for cargo ships picking up Ukrainian grain, but Russia has escalated its attacks on Ukrainian grain-loading facilities in the delta, aiming to disrupt this route. This has led to concerns about the safety of the Sulina Channel, which is vital for Ukrainian grain exports. Russian forces have attacked Ukrainian river ports along the Danube, adding to the risks for shipping.

Efforts have been made to keep the channel open and operational. Romania has recruited maritime pilots with military experience to guide ships, and discussions have taken place to enhance the channel's navigational equipment to allow ships to use it more efficiently.

The Ukrainian government is also considering alternative routes, such as exporting grain through Polish, Baltic, and Adriatic ports, but the Danube link remains the most efficient for now.

Despite challenges and risks, the Sulina Channel continues to facilitate grain shipments, and there are plans to expand its role. The United States and European Union officials have met to discuss ways to support and enhance the channel's function.

Upshot: The situation reflects the complex geopolitical dynamics in the region, with economic interests, military considerations, and international cooperation converging around the need to ensure a stable and safe route for Ukrainian grain exports.

— India is reportedly engaged in discussions with Russia regarding the import of Russian wheat as a strategy to control food inflation, according to Reuters. The country is exploring gov’t-to-gov’t import deals as part of its efforts to stabilize wheat supplies and curb rising domestic prices.

India is facing a shortage of around 3 to 4 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat, but it is considering importing 8 to 9 MMT to have a more significant impact on prices.

The transactions would be conducted in U.S. dollars, similar to the handling of current imports of Russian sunflowerseed oil. It is suggested that Russian wheat could be acquired at a discount of $25 to $40 per metric ton, which would substantially reduce the overall cost of the imported wheat compared to domestic prices.

— A NATO official has retracted his suggestion that Ukraine should cede land to Russia in exchange for NATO membership, after the proposal was deemed "ridiculous" and unacceptable by Ukraine. The idea was raised by Stian Jenssen, chief of staff to NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, but he emphasized that any peace deal would need to be acceptable to Ukraine, a stance also echoed by the Biden administration. Ukraine has adamantly opposed giving up any of its territory to Russia, with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy vowing to reclaim all occupied land.

— A container ship carrying various goods, including food products, departed from Odesa, Ukraine's port city, after a pause in shipping due to the conflict. But Russia has resumed targeting grain infrastructure in Ukraine's Odesa region, using drones to strike storage facilities and ports along the Danube River. These locations have become essential for Ukrainian grain transport to Europe after Russia ended a crucial wartime export deal through the Black Sea. The disruption to Ukraine's grain exports is affecting both its economy and global food supplies. Despite efforts to reroute transport through the Danube and road and rail links into Europe, this alternative is costlier and less efficient than using seaports.

— Russia's economy, battered by ongoing conflict, has encountered a limitation in its growth potential. The significant interest rate hike by the Russian central bank, designed to stabilize the declining ruble, signifies a new reality for the Kremlin. The government has injected substantial funds into the Russian economy to support its military activities in Ukraine and shield its businesses and citizens from the war's effects. This financial support has driven demand within the economy, aiding its recovery from the previous recession prompted by sanctions. However, the economy's supply side is facing constraints due to Russia's isolation and widespread labor shortages. As a result, an imbalance is emerging in the wartime economy, where demand is outpacing the limited supply capabilities. WSJ.

— Leaked documents detail Russia’s secretive effort to build 6,000 attack drones with help from Iran. Washington Post.

CHINA UPDATE

— China has taken strong measures to counter the depreciation of the yuan by providing significant guidance through its daily reference rate for the managed currency. This move, the most forceful since October, comes amid a backdrop of a robust U.S. dollar and signs of a sluggish Chinese economy, pushing the onshore yuan closer to a 16-year low. The People's Bank of China appears to be aiming to curb yuan losses, which have been worsened by an unexpected interest rate cut this week.

Of note: Unofficial reports from property agents and private data providers indicate that China's real estate market is facing more severe challenges than official statistics suggest.

— Will the rest of the world feel China’s deflation pain? Falling prices will lower cost of imports but are unlikely to have a dramatic impact elsewhere. Financial Times.

— China snubbed Canada by omitting it from a list of approved travel destinations for tourists because of a significant increase of “rampant and discriminatory anti-Asian acts and words,” Beijing’s embassy told CBC News. China’s embassy in Ottawa said in a statement to CBC News that “lately, the Canadian side has repeatedly hyped up the so-called ‘Chinese interference’” idea. It added that “rampant and discriminatory anti-Asian acts and words are rising significantly in Canada.” The Canadian media outlet said in a report Wednesday it had asked China why Ottawa wasn’t included when Beijing lifted a ban on group tours to countries including the U.S., Australia and Japan.

Canada said last week the Chinese government was likely behind a series of “misleading narratives” that appeared on social media about Michael Chong, a prominent opposition politician who sponsored a motion in parliament declaring that Beijing’s treatment of Uyghurs and other ethnic minorities in its western Xinjiang region amounted to genocide. China’s embassy responded to those charges by saying “the Canadian statement is complete nonsense and is outright slandering and smearing.”

ENERGY & CLIMATE CHANGE

— Caramuru Alimentos, a major Brazilian grain crusher, has initiated the sale of soybean-based ethanol at one of its plants in central-western Brazil. This move makes Caramuru one of the first companies globally to commercially produce and sell hydrous ethanol derived from soy molasses, a by-product of soybeans. The company's plant in Sorriso in central-western Brazil has the capacity to produce up to 9.5 million liters of hydrous ethanol annually. Most of this volume, around 72%, is expected to be sold in the domestic market as automotive fuel, given that most vehicles in Brazil can operate on 100% ethanol. The remaining ethanol will be utilized by the firm at the plant to produce soy protein concentrate.

— The push to establish electric vehicle supply chains is leading Western mining companies to unexpectedly invest in African countries like Tanzania, Mauritius, and South Africa for metals processing, the Wall Street Journal details in a report. Despite historical concerns over poor infrastructure, limited skilled labor, and government corruption, pressure to secure battery supply chains is driving these Western miners to set up processing facilities in these regions.

Currently, China dominates the production and processing of critical minerals crucial for the energy transition. To counter this dominance, some Western companies and investors are building processing plants in Africa, enabling them to refine raw materials locally and then export them to Europe and the United States. This shift is also aligned with the demands of African governments, which seek more local processing of metals and minerals extracted from their territories. An example of this trend is BHP's plan to construct a nickel-refining plant in Tanzania, indicating a pivot towards refining metals in Africa.

— U.S., trade partners issue joint statement on reducing methane emissions re: natural gas industry. The U.S., along with several trade partners including Australia, Canada, Chile, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Peru, and Taiwan, issued a joint statement highlighting their commitment to reducing methane emissions associated with the natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry. The statement acknowledges the significance of decreasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions throughout the entire value chain of natural gas.

These countries have expressed their support for the Global Methane Pledge, led by the U.S. and the EU, which aims to reduce methane emissions specifically related to LNG by recognizing its potency as a GHG. The pledge seeks to achieve a 30% reduction in human-related methane emissions by 2030 compared to 2020 levels.

The joint statement emphasizes the importance of accurate measurement, monitoring, reporting, verification, and transparency in tracking methane emissions within the fossil energy sector. The countries pledge to rely on analysis from reputable international organizations like the International Energy Agency and the International Methane Emissions Observatory to inform their actions in addressing methane emissions in the industry.

LIVESTOCK, FOOD & BEVERAGE INDUSTRY

— McCarthy: House will need to pass a short-term funding patch sometime next month. House Republicans held a conference call last night to discuss fiscal year (FY) 2024 gov't funding. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is hosting his annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo., this week. Government funding expires Sept. 30. House Republicans are deeply divided on spending, as evidenced by their failure to pass the FY 2024 Agriculture appropriations bill before the recess. Only one of 12 appropriations bills has cleared the House. McCarthy said he's told Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) that the continuing resolution (CR) would not go near the holidays. McCarthy said he still plans to bring some of the House GOP's individual spending bills to the floor, but he provided no details.

HEALTH UPDATE

— The CDC has been using wastewater samples from across the U.S. to monitor the presence of Covid-19 as part of its pandemic response. This data indicates that Covid-19 levels are on the rise in the country, though key indicators are significantly lower compared to previous points in the pandemic. Hospitalizations in the first week of the current month exceeded 10,000 cases. However, weekly hospitalizations are only about a quarter of the levels seen at the same time last year, and they are lower than during approximately 90% of the pandemic's duration. Moreover, CDC statistics reveal that approximately 1% of all hospital beds in the U.S. are occupied by Covid-19 patients. This is a considerable drop from the peak of the Omicron variant surge, during which over a fifth of all hospital beds were occupied by Covid-19 patients.

— An appeals court ruled that the abortion pill mifepristone should remain legal but with big restrictions, setting up a potential showdown in the Supreme Court. Link to details via the New York Times.

POLITICS & ELECTIONS

— Eight candidates met the polling and fundraising thresholds for the first Republican presidential primary debate on Aug. 23. The first Republican presidential primary debate will be held Aug. 23 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, at Fiserv Forum, with Fox News, Young America’s Foundation, and Rumble set to sponsor the debate. The moderators with be Fox’s Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum.

As of Aug. 16, eight candidates had met the polling and fundraising thresholds necessary to participate in the debate. Those candidates are:

Candidates were required to receive at least 1% support in three national polls, or 1% support in two national and one early primary state poll. They also needed to receive contributions from 40,000 unique donors, with at least 200 donors in 20 different states or territories.

Candidates are also required to sign several pledges with the Republican National Committee, including an agreement to not participate in any debates the RNC doesn’t sponsor, to share data with the organization, and to support the eventual party nominee.

Trump is reportedly considering counterprogramming to the upcoming Republican presidential primary debate, and there are indications that he might not participate in the debate itself. Reports note that Trump has not engaged in any preparation for the debate scheduled in Milwaukee. Although some advisers argue that he doesn't need debate preparation, others have suggested that he might decide to participate at the last minute. While no definite plans have been outlined, Trump has been brainstorming various ideas for counterprogramming. These ideas include discussions with former Fox News host Tucker Carlson and making appearances on different cable news shows. Trump has frequently pointed to his strong lead in the polls as a reason for his reluctance to share the debate stage with other Republican contenders.

— Javier Milei pledged to steer Argentina clear of default and to dollarize the $640 billion economy if elected in October. The leading presidential candidate also told Bloomberg he wants to shutter the central bank and slash spending by at least 13% of GDP before mid-2025. His foreign policy proposals include freezing relations with China and pulling out of the Mercosur trade bloc. Link to more via Bloomberg.

CONGRESS

— FY 2024 Ag Approps action when Senate returns in September: Hoeven. In September, the Senate is expected to prioritize fiscal year (FY) 2024 spending bills with broad bipartisan support, specifically focusing on measures such as Agriculture-FDA and Military Construction-Veterans Affairs. Sen. John Hoeven (R-N.D.), an appropriator, expects the Senate to lead the way on these bills. These measures are likely to be part of "minibus" bills, with additional funding measures planned for other areas, Hoeven told the North Dakota Basin Electric Power Cooperative’s annual meeting Wednesday. The Senate Appropriations Committee has already moved forward with all 12 spending bills prior to the August recess, while the House panel has approved 10. Notably, the House has already passed its Military Construction-VA appropriations bill (HR 4366) in late July; the full Senate has approve no appropriations measures.

To prevent a gov’t shutdown on Oct. 1, when FY 2024 begins, House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) have agreed to collaborate on a short-term continuing resolution (CR). This resolution will reportedly aim to maintain funding until early December.

By

For Kitco News